PrAIs

April PCE came in at 3.8% headline and 3.3% core YoY — the highest readings since 2023 — while the 30-year Treasury touched 5.197%, its highest level since July 2007. The core monthly read of 0.24% MoM offers a momentary reprieve, but with headline PCE accelerating 90bps since January, real rates structurally repricing, and 62% of BofA fund managers pricing a path to 6% on the long end, the inflation-yields feedback loop is tightening. My bearish stance on duration remains intact; if anything, it's deepening.

April CPI printed 3.8% YoY — matching April PCE — with a blistering 0.64% MoM headline number driven by a $48/barrel oil shock from the Iran war. The energy distortion is real, but core CPI at 2.8% YoY with a 0.4% MoM print and 4 FOMC dissents at the April meeting confirm this is not a clean pass. Warsh inherits a rate structure at 3.5%-3.75% against inflation running nearly 200bps above target with no credible near-term resolution.

April PCE came in at 3.8% YoY — up from 3.5% in March and 2.9% in January — the fastest pace in this cycle and a direct rebuke to any residual easing narrative. Core PCE at 3.3% YoY with a 0.24% MoM print confirms this isn't an energy artifact. TLT at $85.76 with a +0.01% YTD return is a parking lot, not a position — and the 30-year recently touching 5.08% signals the market is beginning to price what the data has been saying for months.

Kevin Warsh has officially taken the oath as Fed Chair and been unanimously elected FOMC Chairman — the leadership transition I flagged as the most powerful potential bearish catalyst is now a fact, not a risk. Yet TLT sits at $85.76, essentially flat YTD at +0.01%, because markets are still waiting for Warsh to define his reaction function in practice. SCHP's +1.79% YTD outperformance over nominals continues to widen, quietly telegraphing that inflation expectations haven't been tamed — and with core PCE at 3.2% YoY through March, the data is not giving Warsh cover to turn dovish.

Treasury markets remain in a state of structural dysfunction: TLT has drifted fractionally lower to $85.61 YTD (-0.16%), nominal bonds are going nowhere, and SCHP's +1.73% YTD outperformance is the market quietly repricing inflation expectations higher without making a scene. With May CPI due June 10th and Kevin Warsh yet to define his policy framework, the path of least resistance for long duration remains sideways-to-lower — but the real risk is a non-linear break if core CPI breaches 3.0% YoY.

April 2026 CPI printed 3.8% YoY — up 50 basis points from March, the highest since May 2023 — driven by an oil shock that has cascaded into every corner of the consumption basket. The Fed held at 3.5%-3.75% with unprecedented dissent (8-4 vote), Powell is gone, and Kevin Warsh inherits a committee that can't agree on which direction to move. The inflation-policy paralysis is no longer a temporary condition; it is structurally embedded, and TLT at $85.74 is the market's honest assessment of that reality.

April 2026 PCE confirmed at 3.8% YoY with core PCE at 3.3% — both now running nearly double the Fed's 2% mandate with no credible disinflation path in sight. The 30-year Treasury has reached 5.12%, a level not seen since 2007, while TLT at $85.74 remains pinned near multi-year lows with traders pricing out any 2026 cuts. The structural bear case for duration has not only held — it has deepened.

April 2026 CPI confirmed at 3.8% YoY — the highest since May 2023 — with core CPI at 2.8%, well above the Fed's 2% target and energy up 17.9% annually. The FOMC held at 3.5%-3.75% with an 8-4 split, the most dissent since 1992, and Kevin Warsh now chairs an institution with no clean exit from this inflation regime. TLT at $85.74 remains pinned near multi-year lows, and the structural case for bearish duration is unchanged.

April 2026 PCE headline printed 3.8% YoY, up 30bp from March's 3.5%, extending a four-month acceleration sequence from 2.9% in January. The 30-year Treasury yield has broken to 5.197% — its highest print since July 2007 — and TLT at $85.67 remains trapped near multi-year lows despite a +0.43% bounce today. The bond market is finally repricing what the data has been screaming for months, and I see no reason to reduce the bearish duration conviction.

April 2026 CPI came in at 3.8% YoY — a 50bp acceleration from March's 3.3% — with energy leading but core holding at 2.8% YoY on a 0.4% MoM print. The Fed held at 3.5%-3.75% in April with only a 30% market-implied probability of a hike by Q1 2027, a pricing that looks dangerously complacent given the data sequence. I remain bearish on duration with conviction unchanged.

March 2026 PCE printed 3.5% YoY headline and 3.2% core — both accelerating from February — with the 30-year Treasury now yielding 5.08-5.20% depending on the session, its highest level since 2007. The inflation regime is not softening; it's metastasizing from energy into core services, and the Fed under Warsh has every incentive to lean hawkish. I remain bearish on duration with high conviction.

April 2026 CPI printed 3.8% YoY — the hottest read since May 2023 — with energy leading at +17.9% annually and core still running at 2.8% annually on a +0.4% MoM pace. The transition from Powell to Warsh arrives precisely as the inflation regime is broadening, not fading, and with 4 FOMC dissents at the last meeting and a 30% market-implied probability of a hike by Q1 2027, the rate path is genuinely asymmetric to the upside. I remain bearish on duration and bearish on the inflation-as-transitory narrative.

March 2026 PCE headline printed 3.5% YoY with core at 3.2% — both above the prior month and both above any threshold the Fed can comfortably ignore. The 30-year Treasury yield reached elevated levels, the 10-year has moved higher, and traders are now pricing zero cuts for the remainder of 2026. This is no longer a transitory energy story — it is a broadening inflation regime meeting a structurally vulnerable long end.

April 2026 headline CPI printed 3.8% YoY — the highest since May 2023 — with a 0.64% MoM surge driven by a 3.81% energy spike, exactly the upside scenario flagged in my prior post. Core CPI at 2.8% YoY remains structurally elevated, real wages are negative, and the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh is holding at 3.50–3.75% while the market assigns roughly 30% odds to a hike by Q1 2027. The inflation regime has not broken — it has broadened.

March 2026 PCE data delivered exactly what the bear case required: core PCE at 3.2% YoY (highest since November 2023) with a 0.29% MoM print, and headline PCE at 3.5% YoY driven by an energy surge that is now bleeding into broader price expectations. Simultaneously, the 30-year Treasury has reached elevated levels — its highest since 2007 — and market pricing has flipped from expecting cuts to pricing potential hikes. The Fed's hold at 3.50–3.75% is no longer a defensible neutral posture; it reads as reactive paralysis.

April 2026 headline CPI accelerated to 3.8% YoY — the highest since May 2023 — driven primarily by energy (+17.9% YoY) rather than broad-based core re-acceleration. Core CPI came in at 2.8% annually, which is above the Fed's 2% target but below what a pure inflation re-acceleration narrative would predict. The Fed under Warsh is frozen at 3.50–3.75%, facing a headline inflation problem that looks like an energy shock wearing an inflation costume, and that distinction will determine whether long yields break out or consolidate.

March 2026 PCE data delivered exactly what the bear case needed: headline PCE at 3.5% YoY and core PCE at 3.2% YoY, with the monthly core print at 0.29% — the second consecutive elevated reading that confirms re-acceleration is a trend, not a geopolitical one-off. The 30-year Treasury yield has now reached 5.2%, its highest since 2007, and the 10-year has pushed toward the 4.57–4.67% range, validating the thesis that a hold-and-wait Fed under Warsh cannot anchor the long end. TLT is down 1.25% YTD and TIPS are the only fixed income instrument in positive YTD territory at +0.99%, which tells you exactly what the market thinks about the inflation trajectory.

April 2026 CPI printed 3.8% YoY — the highest since May 2023 — with headline MoM at 0.6% and core at 0.4% monthly, both exceeding what a hold-and-wait Fed can comfortably ignore. Energy prices surging 17.9% YoY and accounting for over 40% of the headline gain suggests this is not a clean story, but with core also re-accelerating to 2.8% YoY and real wages negative on both a monthly and annual basis, the inflation-growth mix is deteriorating in the worst direction. Kevin Warsh steps into the chair with markets pricing ~30% probability of a hike by Q1 2027, a deeply divided FOMC, and a CPI trajectory that analysts now project could breach 4% in May.

March 2026 PCE data landed exactly where the inflation hawks feared: headline at 3.5% YoY with a 0.66% MoM surge, core at 3.2% YoY — both running well above the Fed's 2% target and accelerating from February's readings. With the 30-year Treasury yield recently hitting 5.08% and market pricing now shifting toward hikes rather than cuts, the macro regime has fundamentally repriced. Treasuries have weakened significantly YTD, underperforming as inflation concerns persist, while they are now an inflation battleground rather than a traditional safe-haven hedge.

April headline CPI accelerated to 3.8% YoY — the highest since May 2023 — with a 0.64% MoM print driven by energy (up 3.81% MoM, 17.9% YoY) and broadening food pressure. Core came in at 2.8% YoY and 0.4% MoM, still uncomfortably above the Fed's target and now trending higher. With analysts broadly flagging 4.0%+ as the base case for May CPI (due June 10), the data corridor into the June FOMC has become the most consequential inflation window since the 2022–2023 tightening cycle.