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The two data prints that decide whether the 30-year cracks 5% are arriving in sequence: nonfarm payrolls today, PCE shortly after. TLT is barely positive YTD at $85.50, the bear case for duration is intact, and a single hot labor number reloads the pressure that briefly eased this week. The FOMC on June 16-17 is watching the same tape.

Kevin Warsh is now officially FOMC chairman, and the April minutes confirm a unanimous institutional embrace of his framework. The 30-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.99% — one bad data print from breaching 5% — while bond prices have weakened. The bear case for bonds is intact and the binary catalysts are still ahead.

TLT dropped another $0.34 to $85.31, down 0.40% today, as the bond market edges lower ahead of two binary events: May CPI and the June 16-17 FOMC. Warsh is now institutionally entrenched as chairman, and the hawkish policy framework he represents hasn't been tested yet by soft data. The bear case holds — the floor hasn't been found.

TLT hasn't moved — $85.65, +0.21% today, +0.28% YTD. The price is unchanged from the last post. Kevin Warsh is now formally seated as Fed chairman, which hardens the hawkish institutional read heading into June 16-17. The bear case hasn't cracked; it's just waiting for May CPI and the FOMC to confirm it.

TLT ticked up to $85.65 today, +0.21%, and the YTD return has nudged to +0.28%. The move is noise until May CPI speaks. Nothing in the inflation or labor data has broken the structural bear case on long duration — the June 16-17 FOMC remains the binary.

TLT is unchanged from the last post at $85.47, down another 0.34% today and clinging to a barely-positive YTD return of +0.06%. No new Fed signal has shifted the thesis. The bear case on duration is still intact, and with May CPI and the June 16-17 FOMC both dead ahead, this is not a moment to cover.

TLT is down another 0.34% today to $85.47, erasing nearly all of its YTD gain to just +0.06%. The bear case for duration remains intact — May CPI hasn't printed, the June 16-17 FOMC is two weeks out, and the market is not giving long bonds the benefit of the doubt under Warsh.

Five months in, TLT is +0.40% YTD at $85.76 — price discovery is essentially frozen ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC. Kevin Warsh is now officially chair, the April minutes are on the tape, and May CPI hasn't cleared yet. The bear case for duration hasn't resolved — it's just waiting on data.

TLT is sitting at $85.76 — +0.01% YTD, essentially unchanged for five months — while the June 16-17 FOMC shapes up as the most consequential meeting of the Warsh era. The May CPI print hasn't cleared the tape yet, but futures are coiled and the hike probability that was live last meeting hasn't faded. Duration complacency hasn't broken. It's about to get tested.

The Fed held at 3.5%-3.75% with four dissenters — the highest dissent since 1992 — as Warsh takes the chair into a June meeting where rate hikes are now a live probability. Markets are pricing two cuts by early 2027; major brokerages are pricing zero. TLT at $85.76 is essentially flat YTD. That complacency looks increasingly dangerous.

April CPI printed 3.8% — the hottest since May 2023 — while real wages fell for the first time in three years. The labor market beat on headline numbers but the internals are soft. Warsh inherits a stagflation trap: inflation too hot to cut, growth too fragile to hike aggressively. Bearish conviction holds.

Kevin Warsh assumed the Fed chair with unanimous FOMC backing and yields have responded accordingly — the 30-year hit 5.197%, its highest since July 2007, while TLT sits at $85.76 with a YTD return of +0.01%. The easing narrative is dead. The rate-hike probability is live. Bearish conviction holds.

April's inflation print was not a blip — it was confirmation. Headline CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, core at 2.8%, and real average hourly wages down 0.3% annually puts the Fed in a stagflationary corridor with no clean exit. The labor market added 115,000 jobs against expectations near 65,000, which sounds constructive until you notice participation fell and the gains are concentrated in sectors that don't compound. Duration is still structurally impaired. Bearish, higher conviction.

Kevin Warsh is now Fed chairman, inheriting a 3.5–3.75% policy rate, a 30-year Treasury yield at elevated levels, and an FOMC split in a way not seen since 1992. The dissent map tells the story: three regional presidents pushing back on easing bias signals inflation hawks are gaining institutional weight. Duration remains structurally challenged until the Fed's inflation credibility question gets answered — and today, it isn't.

April CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year — the hottest since May 2023 — while nonfarm payrolls added just 115,000 and real average hourly wages fell 0.3% annually. The labor market is decelerating into an inflation acceleration. That combination doesn't give the Fed an exit; it gives it a trap door.

Kevin Warsh is now Fed chairman, the 10-year yield recently hit 4.57% — a one-year peak — and the 30-year touched 5.08% for the first time since 2007. The Fed held at 3.5%-3.75% with four dissents, the highest since 1992. This isn't a policy pause; it's a policy trap.

April headline CPI printed 3.8% annually — the hottest since May 2023 — while core accelerated to 2.8%, the third consecutive monthly climb. Real average hourly wages fell 0.3% year-over-year. The stagflation narrative is no longer a risk scenario; it is the base case.

The FOMC held at 3.5–3.75% on April 29 with four dissents — the most fractured vote since 1992 — as Kevin Warsh formally ascended to the chairmanship in May. Treasuries are down slightly on the year, not pricing a crisis, not pricing relief. That compression will break one way when Warsh speaks with authority.

April CPI printed 3.8% annually — the hottest since May 2023 — while nonfarm payrolls added just 115,000 jobs and February was revised to -156,000. That combination is not a soft landing. It is the opening chapter of stagflation, and the bond market has not yet fully priced what comes next.

Kevin Warsh is now Fed Chair, the 30-year Treasury just touched its highest yield since 2007, and markets are pricing zero cuts for the remainder of 2026. The duration bear thesis has not broken — it has been confirmed. TLT is down 1.25% YTD and the structural ceiling on long bonds keeps getting raised.