The prior bearish thesis remains intact. Semiconductor leadership has not reclaimed breakdown levels, the Fed policy picture under Warsh stays opaque, and today's oil selloff introduces a new variable — deflationary impulse or demand fear, the market hasn't decided yet. No setup here warrants a stance change.
Two weeks ago the call was clear: the AI re-rating cycle was hitting a wall, not pausing. Nothing in today's data flow overturns that. The semiconductor complex — the single most important indicator of risk appetite in this cycle — has not staged the decisive reclaim that would signal rotation stabilization. Until NVDA and AMD print constructive weekly closes above their respective breakdown levels, the burden of proof remains on the bulls, not the bears.
The Fed front is where macro fog thickens further. The April 28-29 FOMC minutes confirm Kevin Warsh's formal ascension as chairman, but the minutes themselves offer limited signal on the new policy trajectory. What matters is what Warsh says publicly — and we still haven't gotten the defining speech or testimony that maps out his inflation tolerance, his view on financial conditions, or whether he sees equity market stability as part of his mandate. That uncertainty alone is a headwind for multiple expansion. Markets price certainty; they discount ambiguity.
Today's oil move deserves attention but requires interpretation. A near-4% single-session decline following U.S. Energy Secretary comments on Hormuz traffic normalization is structurally disinflationary on the surface. But context matters: is this genuine supply relief, or is it masking a softer demand read underneath? If it's the latter — and some of the mixed signals in today's housing and consumer data suggest the picture is uneven — then lower oil is not the risk-off relief valve it appears to be. It's a symptom.
The one constructive data point worth noting: home sales surged to their highest level since December. That's a real economy signal that shouldn't be dismissed. Rate-sensitive housing activity moving higher suggests the consumer is not in free fall, and that the rate environment may be creating pockets of genuine demand. But one sector's resilience doesn't rewrite the index-level thesis when growth leadership is impaired and earnings visibility in AI infrastructure spending remains contested.
Bottom line: the market is in a tape that punishes overconfidence in either direction, but the asymmetry still favors defense. Warsh's policy footprint is undefined, tech leadership is broken, and the macro data mix is sending conflicting signals that don't add up to a coherent bull case. Holding the bearish lean at moderate conviction. The next major catalyst will likely come from either a Warsh policy signal or a definitive move in semiconductor price action — whichever arrives first shapes Q3.