The Session

Tuesday closed as a risk-off day with a clear geopolitical trigger. The Nasdaq led U.S. equity declines after President Trump stated that the United States needed to respond to Iran's recent actions, injecting fresh uncertainty into a market that had been riding an AI-driven rally. The S&P 500 and Dow also fell, though the tech-heavy Nasdaq absorbed the sharpest losses — consistent with how growth-oriented indexes tend to react when geopolitical risk spikes and rate expectations harden simultaneously.

The session was not a pure surprise. Geopolitical risk has been building alongside the Strait of Hormuz closure, and markets have been reluctant to take on new risk ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data that could shape the Federal Reserve's next rate decision. Tuesday simply gave traders a concrete reason to act on that caution.

One notable exception was SharkNinja, which bucked the broader selloff and closed higher on the day — a reminder that single-stock catalysts can override macro headwinds.

The Energy Story Underneath

The day's most consequential development may not have been the equity selloff at all. Iraq is approaching what analysts describe as an economic crisis point: the country's agreement to export crude oil via pipeline through Turkey expires on July 27, and there is currently no reported replacement arrangement in place.

The timing is acute. The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which a significant share of global oil flows — has already been closed, eliminating Iraq's primary alternative export route. With both channels potentially unavailable simultaneously, Iraq could face a severe reduction in its ability to sell oil, the government's dominant source of revenue.

For global energy markets, the implications extend well beyond Iraq's fiscal situation. Any sustained disruption to Iraqi crude supply would tighten an already strained market at a moment when geopolitical risk premiums are elevated across the board. The July 27 deadline is now a hard catalyst on the energy calendar — one that traders in crude futures and energy equities will be tracking closely over the next six weeks.

India, one of the world's largest oil importers, has already been absorbing what analysts describe as historically severe supply disruption. The rupee has weakened, growth forecasts have been revised lower, and the country's central bank faces an uncomfortable trade-off between supporting growth and defending the currency. The Iraqi deadline adds another potential supply shock on top of existing pressure.

IPO Pipeline: SpaceX and OpenAI

Against the risk-off backdrop, two of the most closely watched private companies in technology moved toward public markets. SpaceX is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX at an IPO price of $135 per share. Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, an early backer, could see a paper gain of $11.6 billion from the listing — a figure that illustrates the scale of value created during SpaceX's private years.

The listing has drawn attention beyond the aerospace sector. Wolfe Research and others have been examining what SpaceX's public debut means for TSLA shareholders, given ongoing speculation about a potential tie-up between the two Elon Musk-linked entities. No deal has been confirmed, and the merger speculation remains just that — but the structural overlap in chip manufacturing and AI infrastructure between the two companies keeps the conversation alive.

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, separately filed confidentially with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for its own IPO, targeting a valuation above $850 billion. A confidential filing allows a company to submit its prospectus for regulatory review before making it public, preserving flexibility on timing. OpenAI has not made a final decision to proceed.

The simultaneous pipeline of two mega-listings — one in aerospace and AI infrastructure, one in generative AI — is drawing comparisons to prior tech IPO cycles and raises a practical question for institutional allocators: how much capital can the market absorb, and in what sequence.

AI Infrastructure Capital Keeps Flowing

AVGO (Broadcom) formalized a $35 billion AI infrastructure financing platform in partnership with Apollo Global Management (APO) and Blackstone (BX), with the capital earmarked to expand AI computing capacity for Anthropic, the AI safety company backed by Google and Amazon. Deployment is expected to begin in mid-2026, scaling through 2028.

The structure — a financing vehicle backed by two of the world's largest alternative asset managers rather than a traditional equity raise — reflects how private capital has become the primary fuel for AI infrastructure buildout. For Broadcom, the deal deepens its position as a critical chip and networking supplier in a market where demand visibility is extending years into the future.

Separately, Taiwan moved to tighten AI chip export controls to China, a regulatory shift that lifted shares of TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company). The tightening reinforces TSMC's position as the dominant supplier for advanced chips that remain in demand outside restricted channels.

Payments and Legal Clarity

A U.S. federal judge approved the $38 billion settlement between V (Visa) and MA (Mastercard) and merchants over interchange fees — the per-transaction charges that card networks collect when consumers pay by card. The settlement resolves one of the largest antitrust cases in U.S. payment history.

For both networks, the ruling removes a significant legal overhang. The financial exposure was already known and at least partially reserved, making the court's approval broadly neutral to slightly positive: it eliminates the tail risk of a larger adverse judgment at trial and provides regulatory certainty. Whether the settlement prompts follow-on regulatory action on payment network pricing remains a watch item.

Tomorrow's Setup

The session's two dominant threads carry directly into Wednesday. The geopolitical situation with Iran remains fluid, and any escalation — or de-escalation — will move equity and energy markets simultaneously. Incoming U.S. inflation data is the scheduled macro catalyst: a hotter-than-expected CPI reading would push back Fed rate cut expectations and add pressure to growth stocks already strained by the day's selloff, while a soft print could provide relief.

In energy, the July 27 Iraq pipeline deadline is now firmly on the radar. Six weeks is enough time for a negotiated extension — but also enough time for the situation to deteriorate further if no agreement materializes. Crude markets will be pricing that risk incrementally from here.

SpaceX's first trading sessions under SPCX will also be closely watched, both for price discovery and for what institutional demand signals about appetite for large, high-profile technology listings in the current environment.